ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Mirana
Sneyking · 34 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 29 games
Doomsignature
33 · 23 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 21 game
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 20 games
Rikisignature
Saksa · 19 games
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 19 games
Team Spirit
Rubicksignature
Mira · 44 games
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 27 games
Tinysignature
Larl · 23 games
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 21 game
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 20 games
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 18 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
Tusksignature
Larl · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1001 picks · 698 bans
Tiny
639 picks · 465 bans
Nature's Prophet
577 picks · 931 bans
Disruptor
558 picks · 411 bans
Tusk
532 picks · 410 bans
Snapfire
527 picks · 369 bans
Death Prophet
519 picks · 1211 bans
Clockwerk
499 picks · 385 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total54% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:10
Tundra Esports 52%Team Spirit 48%
The model gave 52% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 34:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeSkiter
LeshracLarl
PangolierNine
MagnusCollapse
Beastmaster33
Night StalkerYatoro
Keeper of the LightSaksa
IoMira
Crystal MaidenSneyking
RubickMiposhka
Game 2prediction missed22:32
Tundra Esports 52%Team Spirit 48%
The model gave 52% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistNine
Naga SirenYatoro
SlarkSkiter
ViperLarl
Beastmaster33
UnderlordCollapse
EnchantressSneyking
RubickMira
VenomancerSaksa
DisruptorMiposhka
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2