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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 27 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 26 games
69%
Mars
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
75%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 21 game
52%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 19 games
74%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 19 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 19 games
79%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Pure~ · 18 games
72%

Team Spirit

Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 27 games
81%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 27 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 25 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 19 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
83%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Larl · 18 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 18 games
67%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Larl · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
362 picks · 488 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
361 picks · 332 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
326 picks · 461 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
307 picks · 598 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
289 picks · 346 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
286 picks · 153 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
259 picks · 427 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
248 picks · 240 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:32
Tundra Esports 50%Team Spirit 50%
The model gave 50% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNightfall
49% · 135 games47% · 85 games
TerrorbladeSatanic
Terrorblade
Doom
Doom33
52% · 187 games54% · 129 games
Sand KingLarl
Sand King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
47% · 176 games48% · 37 games
DawnbreakerMalik
Dawnbreaker
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiWhitemon
52% · 15 games52% · 269 games
HoodwinkMiposhka
Hoodwink
Lion
LionSaksa
58% · 165 games42% · 158 games
Tuskrue
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed16:33
Tundra Esports 53%Team Spirit 47%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingNightfall
54% · 138 games47% · 125 games
Shadow FiendSatanic
Shadow Fiend
Sand King
Sand King33
54% · 134 games52% · 164 games
Ember SpiritLarl
Ember Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritLorenof
49% · 101 game52% · 299 games
PangolierMalik
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderSaksa
50% · 323 games46% · 100 games
Muertarue
Muerta
Pugna
PugnaWhitemon
43% · 127 games54% · 135 games
Vengeful SpiritMiposhka
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2