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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spiritloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 38 games
66%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 35 games
77%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 30 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 29 games
69%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 27 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Saksa · 26 games
81%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 26 games
73%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 26 games
88%

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 30 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 28 games
61%
Tusk
Tusk
Miposhka · 26 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 25 games
80%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 23 games
70%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 22 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Satanic · 22 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Collapse · 21 game
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
518 picks · 722 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
469 picks · 745 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
468 picks · 460 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
454 picks · 353 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
414 picks · 496 bans
49%
Magnus
Magnus
411 picks · 1031 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
404 picks · 930 bans
60%
Pangolier
Pangolier
389 picks · 538 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 74%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total52% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:22
Tundra Esports 50%Team Spirit 50%
The model gave 50% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistdyrachyo
48% · 181 game50% · 264 games
GyrocopterYatoro
Gyrocopter
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbzm
47% · 475 games48% · 229 games
BeastmasterCollapse
Beastmaster
Tinker
TinkerWhitemon
40% · 33 games53% · 291 game
TinyLarl
Tiny
Sand King
Sand King33
58% · 206 games50% · 110 games
Weaverrue
Weaver
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSaksa
54% · 133 games47% · 134 games
JakiroMiposhka
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct5:34
Tundra Esports 49%Team Spirit 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 32:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerbzm
51% · 114 games54% · 10 games
ClinkzYatoro
Clinkz
Slark
Slarkdyrachyo
50% · 39 games51% · 179 games
Dragon KnightLarl
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand King33
55% · 149 games55% · 83 games
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Centaur Warrunner
Warlock
WarlockWhitemon
49% · 87 games52% · 50 games
Bounty Hunterrue
Bounty Hunter
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSaksa
52% · 66 games38% · 133 games
JakiroMiposhka
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed23:8
Tundra Esports 49%Team Spirit 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 28:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
44% · 139 games50% · 87 games
UrsaYatoro
Ursa
Lifestealer
Lifestealerdyrachyo
46% · 50 games49% · 161 game
PuckLarl
Puck
Tiny
Tinybzm
54% · 186 games46% · 76 games
AbaddonCollapse
Abaddon
Dazzle
DazzleWhitemon
57% · 20 games61% · 65 games
Bounty Hunterrue
Bounty Hunter
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSaksa
50% · 10 games44% · 16 games
SilencerMiposhka
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 52%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3