BLAST Slam VII · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Spiritwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 36 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 33 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 31 game
Tinysignature
bzm · 30 games
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 29 games
Timbersawoften banned
33 · 28 games
Batridersignature
33 · 27 games
Beastmasteroften banned
bzm · 27 games
Team Spirit
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 37 games
Jakirosignature
Panto · 22 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 21 game
Ringmaster
rue · 21 game
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
Tusk
rue · 21 game
Batridersignature
Collapse · 20 games
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
545 picks · 339 bans
Phoenix
477 picks · 564 bans
Rubick
443 picks · 234 bans
Tiny
426 picks · 354 bans
Pangolier
367 picks · 501 bans
Puck
322 picks · 846 bans
Jakiro
317 picks · 214 bans
Beastmaster
314 picks · 800 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total51% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:54
Tundra Esports 49%Team Spirit 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 49:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeusbzm
Shadow FiendYatoro
Drow RangerPure~
DoomCollapse
Timbersaw33
Earth SpiritLarl
LichWhitemon
Hoodwinknot me
TuskAri
Banerue
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 51%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1