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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Ticklesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Topson · 11 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Sneyking · 10 games
70%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 9 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Topson · 8 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Whitemon · 8 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Nine · 8 games
38%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 7 games
57%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Skiter · 7 games
57%

Team Tickles

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 25 games
72%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 22 games
68%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 21 game
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ulnit · 16 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Force · 13 games
62%
Luna
Luna
Ulnit · 13 games
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Dukalis · 13 games
46%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
NARMAN · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
320 picks · 469 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
278 picks · 416 bans
48%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
260 picks · 447 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
259 picks · 227 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
249 picks · 153 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
241 picks · 691 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
241 picks · 334 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
235 picks · 376 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% Team Tickles
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:10
Tundra Esports 63%Team Tickles 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 28:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenPure~
49% · 123 games51% · 189 games
Keeper of the LightLorenof
Keeper of the Light
Puck
PuckTopson
39% · 133 games53% · 173 games
Templar AssassinUlnit
Templar Assassin
Magnus
MagnusMinD_ContRoL
50% · 151 game53% · 136 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Hoodwink
Hoodwink9Class
46% · 118 games53% · 191 game
Nature's ProphetDukalis
Nature's Prophet
Techies
TechiesWhitemon
52% · 225 games52% · 61 game
Bounty HunterNARMAN
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction correct33:13
Tundra Esports 64%Team Tickles 36%
The model gave 64% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 34:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenPure~
45% · 121 game48% · 377 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierTopson
49% · 385 games52% · 218 games
WindrangerUlnit
Windranger
Magnus
MagnusMinD_ContRoL
51% · 194 games51% · 173 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Hoodwink
Hoodwink9Class
41% · 114 games53% · 260 games
Nature's ProphetDukalis
Nature's Prophet
Techies
TechiesWhitemon
54% · 294 games53% · 80 games
Bounty HunterNARMAN
Bounty Hunter
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 74%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2