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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Tideboundloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 36 games
69%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 33 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 33 games
79%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 30 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 29 games
69%
Tusk
Tusk
Saksa · 29 games
59%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 25 games
72%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 25 games
64%

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 10 games
90%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
pLAnet · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 7 games
86%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 6 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
NothingToSay · 6 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
pLAnet · 6 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Faith_bian · 6 games
83%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
pLAnet · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
515 picks · 735 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
489 picks · 791 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
486 picks · 475 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
447 picks · 374 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
438 picks · 527 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
430 picks · 1044 bans
58%
Bristleback
Bristleback
414 picks · 937 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
394 picks · 530 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 76%
Hero pool strength50% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:11
Tundra Esports 71%Team Tidebound 29%
The model gave 71% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 27:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingbzm
49% · 169 games43% · 276 games
Morphlingshiro
Morphling
Lifestealer
Lifestealerdyrachyo
51% · 112 games54% · 196 games
MagnusFaith_bian
Magnus
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
55% · 103 games50% · 32 games
Death ProphetNothingToSay
Death Prophet
Tinker
TinkerWhitemon
48% · 21 game56% · 104 games
GrimstrokepLAnet
Grimstroke
Batrider
BatriderSaksa
50% · 300 games46% · 97 games
Jakiroy`
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed16:27
Tundra Esports 71%Team Tidebound 29%
The model gave 71% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 32:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
51% · 132 games43% · 306 games
Tinyshiro
Tiny
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
48% · 288 games48% · 150 games
PuckNothingToSay
Puck
Earthshaker
Earthshakerbzm
57% · 131 game50% · 88 games
TidehunterFaith_bian
Tidehunter
Warlock
WarlockWhitemon
55% · 102 games46% · 39 games
Nature's ProphetpLAnet
Nature's Prophet
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSaksa
54% · 54 games50% · 124 games
Jakiroy`
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct36:15
Tundra Esports 71%Team Tidebound 29%
The model gave 71% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voiddyrachyo
53% · 44 games47% · 154 games
Medusashiro
Medusa
Monkey King
Monkey Kingbzm
49% · 165 games54% · 193 games
MagnusNothingToSay
Magnus
Tinker
TinkerWhitemon
40% · 17 games55% · 205 games
BristlebackFaith_bian
Bristleback
Doom
Doom33
51% · 246 games51% · 77 games
Nature's ProphetpLAnet
Nature's Prophet
Batrider
BatriderSaksa
49% · 287 games48% · 130 games
Miranay`
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 84%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3