BLAST Slam III · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Tideboundloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Beastmastersignature
33 · 46 games
Doomsignature
33 · 36 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 28 games
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 26 games
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 26 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
dyrachyo · 25 games
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 24 games
Batridersignature
Saksa · 23 games
Team Tidebound
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 30 games
Jakirosignature
y` · 28 games
Terrorbladesignature
shiro · 18 games
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 16 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 15 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 15 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Faith_bian · 13 games
Magnusoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
455 picks · 660 bans
Jakiro
434 picks · 421 bans
Phantom Assassin
347 picks · 716 bans
Bristleback
319 picks · 636 bans
Muerta
312 picks · 183 bans
Dragon Knight
309 picks · 508 bans
Beastmaster
301 picks · 603 bans
Warlock
296 picks · 272 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total73% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:19
Tundra Esports 62%Team Tidebound 38%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinCrystallis
Terrorbladeshiro
Medusabzm
BeastmasterNothingToSay
Enigma33
Dark SeerFaith_bian
WarlockWhitemon
Nyx AssassinpLAnet
TuskSaksa
Miranay`
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 73%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1