BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs predictionseries probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 32 games
Axesignature
33 · 25 games
Banesignature
Whitemon · 22 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 21 game
Pugna
Whitemon · 21 game
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 19 games
Ursasignature
Pure~ · 18 games
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 17 games
Team Yandex
Tusksignature
Malady · 29 games
Jakirosignature
Malady · 27 games
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 21 game
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 21 game
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 19 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
Snapfire
Malady · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
600 picks · 937 bans
Tusk
543 picks · 428 bans
Centaur Warrunner
495 picks · 642 bans
Dragon Knight
494 picks · 654 bans
Shadow Demon
439 picks · 950 bans
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 655 bans
Mars
387 picks · 532 bans
Warlock
380 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total61% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:22
Tundra Esports 54%Team Yandex 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 49:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaPure~
SvenWatson
Storm Spiritbzm
BrewmasterNoticed
Largo33
Earth SpiritChira JUNIOR
PhoenixWhitemon
Ancient ApparitionMalady
Shadow ShamanAri
TuskSaksa
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 61%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1