The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Thunder Awakenloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Doomsignature
33 · 25 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 24 games
Visagesignature
33 · 18 games
Beastmastersignature
33 · 17 games
Tinysignature
Saksa · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 14 games
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 14 games
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 13 games
Thunder Awaken
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 27 games
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 25 games
Marssignature
DarkMago · 21 game
Ogre Magi
Panda · 19 games
Banesignature
Panda · 14 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 14 games
Timbersawsignature
Sacred · 14 games
Weaversignature
Sacred · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
514 picks · 397 bans
Marci
455 picks · 698 bans
Death Prophet
304 picks · 468 bans
Puck
288 picks · 700 bans
Undying
284 picks · 488 bans
Dawnbreaker
278 picks · 397 bans
Snapfire
254 picks · 132 bans
Batrider
253 picks · 875 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 37%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:30
Tundra Esports 50%Thunder Awaken 50%
The model gave 50% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 46:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerNine
GyrocopterPakazs
Chaos KnightSkiter
AlchemistDarkMago
Beastmaster33
DawnbreakerSacred
SnapfireSneyking
Crystal MaidenPanda
UndyingSaksa
MarciMatthew
Game 2prediction correct28:13
Tundra Esports 53%Thunder Awaken 47%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 33:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkSkiter
LunaPakazs
Primal BeastNine
ZeusDarkMago
Visage33
DawnbreakerSacred
UndyingSaksa
MarciMatthew
Crystal MaidenSneyking
DazzlePanda
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2