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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.proloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 35 games
69%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 33 games
70%
Batrider
Batridersignature
33 · 30 games
60%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 30 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 29 games
66%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
bzm · 27 games
59%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
33 · 27 games
52%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 26 games
58%

Virtus.pro

Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 33 games
39%
Tiny
Tiny
Hellscream · 24 games
33%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Timado · 23 games
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 22 games
45%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
45%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
SabeRLight- · 21 game
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Abed · 20 games
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Abed · 20 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
533 picks · 326 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
481 picks · 581 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
424 picks · 357 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
423 picks · 227 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
348 picks · 241 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 473 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
330 picks · 850 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
320 picks · 828 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 43%
Hero pool strength61% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total86% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:35
Tundra Esports 69%Virtus.pro 31%
The model gave 69% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 43:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersaw33
50% · 197 games51% · 196 games
MuertaTimado
Muerta
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
49% · 388 games54% · 370 games
Ember SpiritAbed
Ember Spirit
Alchemist
AlchemistPure~
50% · 72 games58% · 153 games
AxeSabeRLight-
Axe
Rubick
RubickAri
42% · 236 games53% · 195 games
RingmasterHellscream
Ringmaster
Techies
TechiesWhitemon
43% · 85 games52% · 64 games
LichFly
Lich
Game 2prediction correct35:14
Tundra Esports 74%Virtus.pro 26%
The model gave 74% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 34:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaPure~
55% · 179 games45% · 109 games
LunaTimado
Luna
Invoker
Invokerbzm
54% · 96 games49% · 260 games
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
Centaur Warrunner
Lycan
Lycan33
55% · 45 games41% · 242 games
Void SpiritAbed
Void Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
50% · 332 games46% · 108 games
TechiesHellscream
Techies
Bane
BaneWhitemon
54% · 107 games56% · 40 games
LichFly
Lich
Game 3prediction correct29:18
Tundra Esports 73%Virtus.pro 27%
The model gave 73% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 39:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerbzm
50% · 132 games59% · 294 games
WindrangerTimado
Windranger
Muerta
MuertaPure~
44% · 273 games53% · 449 games
Ember SpiritAbed
Ember Spirit
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
50% · 287 games51% · 277 games
AxeSabeRLight-
Axe
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanAri
55% · 394 games44% · 322 games
RingmasterHellscream
Ringmaster
Tusk
TuskWhitemon
44% · 601 game50% · 345 games
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 86%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3