?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 17 games
82%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Sneyking · 12 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Topson · 11 games
64%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Topson · 11 games
73%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Whitemon · 10 games
50%
Sven
Svensignature
Skiter · 10 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
9Class · 10 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
67%

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 7 games
100%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 6 games
100%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
XinQ · 5 games
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Dy · 5 games
80%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
XinQ · 5 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Xxs · 5 games
40%
Mirana
Mirana
XinQ · 5 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
365 picks · 318 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
324 picks · 311 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
321 picks · 484 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
269 picks · 381 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
253 picks · 327 bans
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
252 picks · 142 bans
51%
Techies
Techies
252 picks · 171 bans
55%
Magnus
Magnus
250 picks · 460 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:24
Tundra Esports 43%Xtreme Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 37:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistPure~
50% · 119 games56% · 177 games
Naga SirenAme
Naga Siren
Zeus
ZeusTopson
40% · 56 games52% · 263 games
TimbersawXxs
Timbersaw
Mars
MarsMinD_ContRoL
59% · 101 game48% · 192 games
Templar AssassinXm
Templar Assassin
Techies
TechiesWhitemon
54% · 220 games50% · 24 games
Nyx AssassinXinQ
Nyx Assassin
Rubick
Rubick9Class
40% · 334 games49% · 174 games
Crystal MaidenDy
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct19:27
Tundra Esports 39%Xtreme Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 39:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPure~
54% · 122 games53% · 169 games
Faceless VoidAme
Faceless Void
Primal Beast
Primal BeastTopson
43% · 151 game42% · 24 games
ViperXm
Viper
Night Stalker
Night StalkerMinD_ContRoL
50% · 24 games52% · 135 games
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
Batrider9Class
49% · 185 games54% · 103 games
Crystal MaidenDy
Crystal Maiden
Elder Titan
Elder TitanWhitemon
50% · 24 games48% · 75 games
OracleXinQ
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 66%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2