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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 41 game
78%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 32 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 27 games
74%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 23 games
87%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 21 game
81%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 20 games
75%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 18 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 17 games
76%

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 22 games
82%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 19 games
74%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 18 games
61%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 16 games
44%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 15 games
73%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 15 games
80%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Dy · 13 games
62%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Xm · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
473 picks · 205 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
453 picks · 831 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
453 picks · 595 bans
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 663 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
419 picks · 179 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
396 picks · 726 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 620 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
382 picks · 295 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total63% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:28
Tundra Esports 45%Xtreme Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 56:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordPure~
56% · 52 games39% · 27 games
ClinkzAme
Clinkz
Zeus
ZeusTopson
48% · 54 games45% · 133 games
TimbersawXxs
Timbersaw
Enigma
EnigmaTobi
59% · 82 games58% · 106 games
LeshracXm
Leshrac
Chen
ChenWhitemon
51% · 85 games60% · 44 games
EarthshakerXinQ
Earthshaker
Tiny
Tiny9Class
43% · 168 games42% · 131 game
EnchantressDy
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct19:31
Tundra Esports 46%Xtreme Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 46:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingPure~
42% · 203 games54% · 56 games
ClinkzAme
Clinkz
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightTopson
49% · 137 games49% · 266 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerTobi
46% · 214 games51% · 222 games
KunkkaXxs
Kunkka
Chen
ChenWhitemon
55% · 86 games69% · 106 games
EarthshakerXinQ
Earthshaker
Rubick
Rubick9Class
42% · 276 games44% · 266 games
EnchantressDy
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 63%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2