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The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 38 games
63%
Techies
Techiessignature
Whitemon · 33 games
76%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 30 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Whitemon · 27 games
59%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 27 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 26 games
62%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 26 games
73%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 23 games
61%

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 23 games
61%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 21 game
81%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 18 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 16 games
44%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 16 games
69%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
XinQ · 14 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 14 games
71%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Xm · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
403 picks · 364 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
381 picks · 415 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 540 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
343 picks · 256 bans
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
309 picks · 535 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
304 picks · 674 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
302 picks · 621 bans
49%
Sven
Sven
297 picks · 310 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 59%
Hero pool strength50% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total61% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:5
Tundra Esports 45%Xtreme Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 30:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidPure~
45% · 39 games42% · 66 games
Shadow FiendXm
Shadow Fiend
Sniper
SniperTopson
53% · 38 games52% · 34 games
LycanXxs
Lycan
Mars
MarsRAMZES666
49% · 159 games55% · 190 games
Faceless VoidAme
Faceless Void
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSaksa
53% · 157 games45% · 97 games
JakiroDy
Jakiro
Clockwerk
ClockwerkWhitemon
50% · 123 games52% · 129 games
TuskXinQ
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed35:23
Tundra Esports 46%Xtreme Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 47:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidPure~
48% · 9 games52% · 124 games
Monkey KingAme
Monkey King
Sand King
Sand KingRAMZES666
55% · 86 games55% · 53 games
ViperXm
Viper
Rubick
RubickTopson
53% · 165 games47% · 60 games
UnderlordXxs
Underlord
Enchantress
EnchantressSaksa
50% · 159 games49% · 89 games
Nyx AssassinXinQ
Nyx Assassin
Clockwerk
ClockwerkWhitemon
46% · 109 games44% · 202 games
JakiroDy
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 61%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2