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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 31 game
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 29 games
66%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 27 games
52%
Mars
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 24 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 24 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 23 games
70%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
33 · 22 games
68%

Xtreme Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 20 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 17 games
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 17 games
65%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 17 games
71%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ame · 16 games
56%
Marci
Marcisignature
XinQ · 15 games
73%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 14 games
79%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Dy · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
398 picks · 511 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
368 picks · 359 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
317 picks · 460 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
307 picks · 361 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
295 picks · 568 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
264 picks · 145 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
253 picks · 258 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
253 picks · 123 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 35%
Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total65% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:26
Tundra Esports 59%Xtreme Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 31:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaNightfall
53% · 312 games56% · 239 games
AlchemistAme
Alchemist
Pangolier
PangolierLorenof
49% · 383 games53% · 333 games
PuckXm
Puck
Terrorblade
Terrorblade33
38% · 127 games47% · 290 games
DoomXxs
Doom
Enchantress
EnchantressWhitemon
51% · 308 games53% · 172 games
Pugna天命
Pugna
Lion
LionSaksa
55% · 216 games45% · 312 games
TuskPyw
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct24:5
Tundra Esports 56%Xtreme Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 27:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNightfall
48% · 391 game47% · 273 games
LunaAme
Luna
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
53% · 235 games57% · 233 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Doom
Doom33
47% · 271 game50% · 240 games
TimbersawXxs
Timbersaw
Chen
ChenWhitemon
55% · 128 games50% · 278 games
Shadow DemonPyw
Shadow Demon
Tusk
TuskSaksa
44% · 342 games49% · 343 games
Clockwerk天命
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed15:40
Tundra Esports 57%Xtreme Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 34:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNightfall
48% · 248 games47% · 141 game
Nature's ProphetAme
Nature's Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
51% · 142 games51% · 109 games
SniperXm
Sniper
Visage
Visage33
43% · 57 games55% · 53 games
DawnbreakerXxs
Dawnbreaker
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
48% · 227 games56% · 341 game
HoodwinkPyw
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSaksa
49% · 244 games52% · 274 games
Tusk天命
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 65%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3