BLAST Slam I · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 32 games
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 30 games
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 30 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 27 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 26 games
Doomsignature
33 · 24 games
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 24 games
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
Xtreme Gaming
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 26 games
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 20 games
Tusksignature
Pyw · 20 games
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 19 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 18 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ame · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xm · 17 games
Puckoften banned
Xm · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
505 picks · 685 bans
Clockwerk
428 picks · 488 bans
Pangolier
367 picks · 531 bans
Luna
356 picks · 457 bans
Dark Willow
351 picks · 180 bans
Dragon Knight
329 picks · 481 bans
Enchantress
326 picks · 635 bans
Batrider
315 picks · 328 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total70% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:8
Tundra Esports 60%Xtreme Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 31:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingNightfall
Ursalou
LinaLorenof
ZeusXm
Brewmaster33
Beastmasterniu
MagnusSaksa
MuertaPyw
Elder TitanWhitemon
Naga SirenPoloson
Game 2prediction correct40:10
Tundra Esports 63%Xtreme Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 30:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightLorenof
Morphlinglou
Monkey KingNightfall
VenomancerXm
Tidehunter33
Timbersawniu
BatriderWhitemon
Shadow ShamanPyw
MagnusSaksa
EnchantressPoloson
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 70%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2