?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 34 games
62%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 33 games
79%
Tusk
Tusk
Whitemon · 33 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 32 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 28 games
68%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 28 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 26 games
69%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Saksa · 24 games
71%

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Poloson · 36 games
56%
Muerta
Muerta
Pyw · 24 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 21 game
48%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Pyw · 21 game
62%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 18 games
61%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Poloson · 17 games
88%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 16 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
niu · 15 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
519 picks · 794 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
511 picks · 620 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
492 picks · 504 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
469 picks · 567 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
434 picks · 369 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
430 picks · 1009 bans
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
417 picks · 780 bans
56%
Bristleback
Bristleback
392 picks · 896 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total93% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:24
Tundra Esports 80%Xtreme Gaming 20%
The model gave 80% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerdyrachyo
48% · 68 games47% · 163 games
Phantom Assassinlou
Phantom Assassin
Tiny
Tinybzm
46% · 421 game50% · 202 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
47% · 318 games50% · 203 games
Primal Beastniu
Primal Beast
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterSaksa
51% · 79 games53% · 427 games
ClockwerkPoloson
Clockwerk
Pugna
PugnaWhitemon
50% · 187 games60% · 78 games
WarlockUndyne_
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct28:11
Tundra Esports 79%Xtreme Gaming 21%
The model gave 79% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 25:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
46% · 357 games48% · 197 games
Razorlou
Razor
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterdyrachyo
46% · 378 games53% · 94 games
Lycanniu
Lycan
Earthshaker
Earthshakerbzm
52% · 131 game48% · 284 games
PuckXm
Puck
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSaksa
54% · 355 games49% · 380 games
PhoenixUndyne_
Phoenix
Elder Titan
Elder TitanWhitemon
57% · 170 games48% · 436 games
ClockwerkPoloson
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 93%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2