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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 37 games
68%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 35 games
77%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 33 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 30 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 29 games
69%
Tusk
Tusk
Saksa · 29 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Saksa · 25 games
80%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 25 games
52%

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Poloson · 38 games
53%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Pyw · 23 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 21 game
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 18 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 18 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Poloson · 17 games
88%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 16 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
niu · 15 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
515 picks · 732 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
481 picks · 473 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
479 picks · 777 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
450 picks · 366 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
420 picks · 519 bans
49%
Magnus
Magnus
420 picks · 1041 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
411 picks · 932 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
392 picks · 541 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 42%
Hero pool strength57% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total77% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:11
Tundra Esports 66%Xtreme Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
Magnusdyrachyo
56% · 190 games55% · 495 games
TinyAme
Tiny
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbzm
48% · 380 games52% · 243 games
PuckXm
Puck
Abaddon
Abaddon33
47% · 64 games47% · 248 games
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
BatriderSaksa
46% · 422 games50% · 44 games
TinkerXinQ
Tinker
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
51% · 146 games48% · 172 games
Elder TitanUndyne_
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed41:56
Tundra Esports 65%Xtreme Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:05:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dazzle
Dazzlebzm
42% · 17 games53% · 46 games
Faceless VoidAme
Faceless Void
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightdyrachyo
47% · 139 games50% · 42 games
VenomancerXm
Venomancer
Doom
Doom33
46% · 98 games56% · 124 games
MagnusXxs
Magnus
Weaver
WeaverSaksa
53% · 95 games56% · 8 games
Ancient ApparitionXinQ
Ancient Apparition
Ringmaster
RingmasterWhitemon
40% · 6 games50% · 135 games
JakiroUndyne_
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed13:42
Tundra Esports 67%Xtreme Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 42:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinydyrachyo
47% · 201 game48% · 159 games
Phantom AssassinAme
Phantom Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbzm
50% · 152 games57% · 12 games
Outworld DestroyerXm
Outworld Destroyer
Abaddon
Abaddon33
57% · 43 games54% · 215 games
MagnusXxs
Magnus
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
46% · 66 games44% · 72 games
Shadow ShamanXinQ
Shadow Shaman
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSaksa
54% · 23 games46% · 27 games
SilencerUndyne_
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 77%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3