ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Batridersignature
Ari · 32 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 32 games
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 29 games
Tinysignature
bzm · 29 games
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 26 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 25 games
Beastmastersignature
bzm · 24 games
Timbersawoften banned
33 · 23 games
Yellow Submarine
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 37 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Mirele · 20 games
Void Spirit
Mirele · 19 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
Batrideroften banned
Infernal · 16 games
Warlock
Htrd · 15 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 14 games
Hoodwink
prblms · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
511 picks · 279 bans
Phoenix
483 picks · 565 bans
Tiny
445 picks · 352 bans
Jakiro
442 picks · 346 bans
Tusk
378 picks · 326 bans
Beastmaster
348 picks · 836 bans
Puck
345 picks · 842 bans
Rubick
334 picks · 177 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total93% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:45
Tundra Esports 77%Yellow Submarine 23%
The model gave 77% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 1:00:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoPure~
KezShigetsu
Snapfirebzm
LycanBatyuk
Underlord33
InvokerRain
RubickAri
LichXakoda
ClockwerkWhitemon
Hoodwinknot me
Game 2prediction missed14:30
Tundra Esports 77%Yellow Submarine 23%
The model gave 77% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 32:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter33
LunaShigetsu
Pangolierbzm
TinkerRain
LichWhitemon
KunkkaBatyuk
AlchemistPure~
Batridernot me
RubickAri
Winter WyvernXakoda
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 93%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2