IESF World Esports Championship 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Турцияloss 1:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Швецияwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Турция
No games played over 6 months.
Швеция
Alchemistoften banned
Charlie · 2 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Excalibur · 2 games
Hoodwink
Pablo · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pablo · 2 games
Phoenix
bengan · 2 games
Witch Doctor
bengan · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
bengan · 1 game
Lion
Pablo · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
480 picks · 655 bans
Clockwerk
414 picks · 458 bans
Luna
352 picks · 442 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 520 bans
Dark Willow
322 picks · 173 bans
Dragon Knight
319 picks · 392 bans
Enchantress
319 picks · 644 bans
Batrider
294 picks · 307 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 63%
Hero pool strength61% Швеция
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Турция
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:36
Турция 60%Швеция 40%
The model gave 60% on Турция — the game was taken by Швеция in 50:14.
Game 2prediction missed37:23
Турция 60%Швеция 40%
The model gave 60% on Турция — the game was taken by Швеция in 39:25.
Game 3prediction missed34:4
Турция 60%Швеция 40%
The model gave 60% on Турция — the game was taken by Швеция in 44:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteТурция · 60%
Series resultШвеция 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3