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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Twisted Mindswin 2:0
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:0
JustBetterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Twisted Minds

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Pablo · 16 games
31%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Pablo · 15 games
60%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Shad · 14 games
43%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 12 games
25%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Adzantick · 12 games
58%
Sven
Sven
Shad · 12 games
42%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pablo · 12 games
42%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Handsken · 11 games
64%

JustBetter

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
ThuG · 8 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Astral · 6 games
67%
Luna
Luna
Focus · 6 games
17%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 5 games
40%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
SsaSpartan · 5 games
20%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Astral · 5 games
40%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SkyLark · 5 games
40%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Focus · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
482 picks · 223 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
439 picks · 683 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
427 picks · 604 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 383 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
413 picks · 749 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
384 picks · 162 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 754 bans
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
345 picks · 964 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Twisted Minds
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% JustBetter
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:24
Twisted Minds 42%JustBetter 58%
The model gave 58% on JustBetter — the game was taken by Twisted Minds in 47:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonShad
49% · 31 game55% · 48 games
PudgeFocus
Pudge
Leshrac
LeshracAdzantick
62% · 114 games50% · 183 games
DoomSkyLark
Doom
Dark Seer
Dark SeerStoneBank
55% · 121 game40% · 183 games
Dragon KnightThuG
Dragon Knight
Tiny
TinyPablo
48% · 234 games47% · 162 games
SnapfireSsaSpartan
Snapfire
Phoenix
PhoenixHandsken
45% · 225 games49% · 149 games
GrimstrokeAstral
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed31:24
Twisted Minds 46%JustBetter 54%
The model gave 54% on JustBetter — the game was taken by Twisted Minds in 37:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonShad
49% · 8 games57% · 111 games
WindrangerFocus
Windranger
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAdzantick
55% · 123 games49% · 95 games
Dragon KnightThuG
Dragon Knight
Slardar
SlardarStoneBank
46% · 73 games56% · 40 games
Legion CommanderSkyLark
Legion Commander
Venomancer
VenomancerHandsken
42% · 36 games45% · 48 games
MuertaAstral
Muerta
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerPablo
49% · 68 games35% · 14 games
Shadow ShamanSsaSpartan
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteJustBetter · 64%
Series resultTwisted Minds 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2