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CCT Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Twisted Mindsloss 1:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
JustBetterwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Twisted Minds

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Pablo · 19 games
26%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Pablo · 18 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pablo · 15 games
47%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Shad · 14 games
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Handsken · 13 games
46%
Sven
Sven
Shad · 13 games
46%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Adzantick · 13 games
46%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 12 games
25%

JustBetter

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
ThuG · 12 games
33%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Astral · 11 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Astral · 11 games
36%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Astral · 8 games
25%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
SsaSpartan · 7 games
14%
Luna
Luna
Focus · 7 games
14%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Focus · 7 games
14%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Focus · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
399 picks · 629 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
346 picks · 366 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
336 picks · 434 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
334 picks · 127 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
321 picks · 353 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
315 picks · 163 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
313 picks · 421 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
312 picks · 572 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 36%
Hero pool strength54% Twisted Minds
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total61% Twisted Minds
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:22
Twisted Minds 57%JustBetter 43%
The model gave 57% on Twisted Minds — the game was taken by Twisted Minds in 34:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherShad
54% · 42 games53% · 166 games
SvenFocus
Sven
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAdzantick
44% · 165 games45% · 112 games
ZeusThuG
Zeus
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightStoneBank
47% · 277 games54% · 174 games
Dark SeerSkyLark
Dark Seer
Enchantress
EnchantressHandsken
51% · 202 games51% · 327 games
TinydEsire
Tiny
Rubick
RubickPablo
48% · 403 games54% · 310 games
Crystal MaidenSsaSpartan
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed14:28
Twisted Minds 57%JustBetter 43%
The model gave 57% on Twisted Minds — the game was taken by JustBetter in 33:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightShad
52% · 97 games57% · 117 games
Troll WarlordFocus
Troll Warlord
Windranger
WindrangerAdzantick
48% · 150 games52% · 196 games
Templar AssassinThuG
Templar Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightStoneBank
53% · 222 games47% · 197 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Phoenix
PhoenixHandsken
47% · 286 games52% · 349 games
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
Centaur Warrunner
Rubick
RubickPablo
40% · 316 games53% · 212 games
SnapfireSsaSpartan
Snapfire
Game 3prediction missed12:35
Twisted Minds 57%JustBetter 43%
The model gave 57% on Twisted Minds — the game was taken by JustBetter in 31:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordShad
53% · 122 games48% · 50 games
Shadow FiendThuG
Shadow Fiend
Underlord
UnderlordStoneBank
54% · 49 games47% · 207 games
Vengeful SpiritFocus
Vengeful Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerAdzantick
53% · 137 games45% · 132 games
SlardarSkyLark
Slardar
Tiny
TinyPablo
53% · 210 games43% · 208 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Phoenix
PhoenixHandsken
44% · 181 game62% · 102 games
MarciSsaSpartan
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteTwisted Minds · 61%
Series resultJustBetter 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3