Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Two Movewin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MODUSloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Two Move
Rubicksignature
queezy · 6 games
Hoodwink
queezy · 5 games
Ringmaster
Htrd · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 4 games
Snapfireoften banned
queezy · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 4 games
Techies
Htrd · 4 games
Void Spirit
Ainkrad · 4 games
MODUS
Rubick
mrls · 9 games
Pucksignature
Mirele · 8 games
Ringmaster
mrls · 8 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 8 games
Tiny
bottega · 8 games
Clockwerkoften banned
prblms · 7 games
Hoodwinksignature
mrls · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
elmo^^ · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
591 picks · 361 bans
Phoenix
487 picks · 579 bans
Rubick
479 picks · 257 bans
Tiny
449 picks · 384 bans
Pangolier
398 picks · 548 bans
Puck
337 picks · 904 bans
Beastmaster
330 picks · 835 bans
Tusk
321 picks · 275 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)81% vs 41%
Hero pool strength62% Two Move
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% Two Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:21
Two Move 66%MODUS 34%
The model gave 66% on Two Move — the game was taken by Two Move in 1:00:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkWoE
Lycanelmo^^
LargoBb3px
Tinybottega
Ember SpiritAinkrad
Storm SpiritMirele
Clockwerkqueezy
Enchantresskasane
Winter WyvernHtrd
Grimstrokeprblms
Game 2prediction correct30:18
Two Move 63%MODUS 37%
The model gave 63% on Two Move — the game was taken by Two Move in 40:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaWoE
Medusabottega
DoomBb3px
Beastmasterelmo^^
Ember SpiritAinkrad
Void SpiritMirele
Snapfirequeezy
Hoodwinkprblms
Treant ProtectorHtrd
Silencerkasane
Model check result
Model favoriteTwo Move · 71%
Series resultTwo Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2