European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Two Movewin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Two Move
Rubicksignature
queezy · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 5 games
Hoodwink
queezy · 5 games
Ringmaster
Htrd · 5 games
Snapfireoften banned
queezy · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 4 games
Techies
Htrd · 4 games
Team Spirit Academy
Grimstroke
Aidar · 23 games
Dark Willow
Aidar · 17 games
Batridersignature
86 · 13 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
86 · 13 games
Kunkka
86 · 13 games
Largosignature
kae · 12 games
Lion
Aidar · 11 games
Axeoften banned
kae · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
461 picks · 284 bans
Ember Spirit
306 picks · 454 bans
Mirana
303 picks · 124 bans
Dark Willow
302 picks · 130 bans
Centaur Warrunner
280 picks · 288 bans
Clockwerk
278 picks · 244 bans
Earth Spirit
276 picks · 411 bans
Bane
270 picks · 389 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% Two Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Two Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:18
Two Move 71%Team Spirit Academy 29%
The model gave 71% on Two Move — the game was taken by Two Move in 42:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerWoE
Undyingkae
PangolierAinkrad
Wraith KingKiseki
LargoBb3px
Slark86
Treant ProtectorHtrd
Dark WillowAidar
Hoodwinkqueezy
Witch DoctorRein
Game 2prediction correct41:23
Two Move 68%Team Spirit Academy 32%
The model gave 68% on Two Move — the game was taken by Two Move in 39:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaWoE
LunaKiseki
PangolierAinkrad
Dawnbreakerkae
UnderlordBb3px
Earth Spirit86
Keeper of the Lightqueezy
UndyingRein
Treant ProtectorHtrd
LionAidar
Model check result
Model favoriteTwo Move · 81%
Series resultTwo Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2