Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTNTypical NAwin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PPositively,Positiveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Typical NA
No games played over 6 months.
Positively,Positive
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
445 picks · 986 bans
Void Spirit
415 picks · 604 bans
Mars
360 picks · 628 bans
Death Prophet
356 picks · 664 bans
Earth Spirit
326 picks · 286 bans
Phoenix
271 picks · 373 bans
Tusk
259 picks · 178 bans
Rubick
256 picks · 166 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% Typical NA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Typical NA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:49
Typical NA 60%Positively,Positive 40%
The model gave 60% on Typical NA — the game was taken by Typical NA in 33:40.
Game 2prediction correct27:47
Typical NA 60%Positively,Positive 40%
The model gave 60% on Typical NA — the game was taken by Typical NA in 59:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteTypical NA · 60%
Series resultTypical NA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2