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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
UALEIKUMNIHAOwin 2:1
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
cybercatsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

UALEIKUMNIHAO

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
hAze · 12 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
b1kA · 9 games
78%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mary_y · 8 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Palantimos · 8 games
75%
Doom
Doomsignature
Shergarat · 7 games
71%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Shergarat · 7 games
71%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
b1kA · 7 games
71%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Palantimos · 6 games
83%

cybercats

Rubick
Rubick
jesv · 14 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
forcemajor · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
Chira JUNIOR · 13 games
54%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
DkFogas · 11 games
27%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
forcemajor · 10 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
forcemajor · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 9 games
44%
Techies
Techies
jesv · 9 games
22%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
991 picks · 692 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
641 picks · 464 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
585 picks · 934 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
545 picks · 407 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
532 picks · 412 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
526 picks · 370 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
518 picks · 1207 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
502 picks · 382 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 41%
Hero pool strength61% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:29
UALEIKUMNIHAO 64%cybercats 36%
The model gave 64% on UALEIKUMNIHAO — the game was taken by cybercats in 37:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPalantimos
50% · 133 games44% · 59 games
AlchemistAlberkaaa
Alchemist
Death Prophet
Death ProphetShergarat
48% · 352 games53% · 360 games
BeastmasterDkFogas
Beastmaster
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterhAze
60% · 17 games48% · 163 games
Keeper of the LightChira JUNIOR
Keeper of the Light
Doom
Doomb1kA
57% · 277 games59% · 363 games
DisruptorDukalis
Disruptor
Rubick
RubickMary_y
43% · 602 games45% · 436 games
Snapfireforcemajor
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct41:14
UALEIKUMNIHAO 64%cybercats 36%
The model gave 64% on UALEIKUMNIHAO — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 45:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistPalantimos
57% · 68 games55% · 81 game
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
Storm Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerhAze
49% · 35 games52% · 84 games
BloodseekerAlberkaaa
Bloodseeker
Viper
ViperShergarat
50% · 68 games49% · 27 games
UnderlordDkFogas
Underlord
Jakiro
JakiroMary_y
41% · 80 games45% · 279 games
Rubickforcemajor
Rubick
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorb1kA
53% · 264 games44% · 44 games
LichDukalis
Lich
Game 3prediction correct24:11
UALEIKUMNIHAO 65%cybercats 35%
The model gave 65% on UALEIKUMNIHAO — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 43:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerPalantimos
49% · 82 games47% · 117 games
Naga SirenAlberkaaa
Naga Siren
Leshrac
LeshrachAze
58% · 167 games35% · 72 games
Void SpiritChira JUNIOR
Void Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaShergarat
58% · 151 game53% · 42 games
UnderlordDkFogas
Underlord
Chen
ChenMary_y
58% · 85 games48% · 230 games
Miranaforcemajor
Mirana
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorb1kA
51% · 160 games44% · 184 games
EnchantressDukalis
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteUALEIKUMNIHAO · 73%
Series resultUALEIKUMNIHAO 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3