Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
UALEIKUMNIHAOwin 1:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:0
ERTENKELEMloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
UALEIKUMNIHAO
No games played over 6 months.
ERTENKELEM
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
782 picks · 526 bans
Tiny
559 picks · 399 bans
Tusk
542 picks · 443 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 572 bans
Nature's Prophet
425 picks · 676 bans
Snapfire
400 picks · 291 bans
Death Prophet
389 picks · 746 bans
Ember Spirit
368 picks · 806 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% ERTENKELEM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed52:23
UALEIKUMNIHAO 49%ERTENKELEM 51%
The model gave 51% on ERTENKELEM — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 39:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteERTENKELEM · 51%
Series resultUALEIKUMNIHAO 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1