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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
UALEIKUMNIHAOloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MoneyMakerswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

UALEIKUMNIHAO

Rubick
Rubick
Mary_y · 15 games
40%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
b1kA · 15 games
80%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Shergarat · 14 games
57%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Shergarat · 14 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Mary_y · 11 games
55%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Shergarat · 11 games
55%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
b1kA · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Palantimos · 9 games
78%

MoneyMakers

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 12 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Bignum · 12 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 10 games
50%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Bignum · 10 games
30%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Bignum · 7 games
43%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Bignum · 7 games
57%
Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 7 games
57%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Lukas · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
525 picks · 556 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
452 picks · 229 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
414 picks · 725 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
369 picks · 641 bans
48%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
352 picks · 350 bans
47%
Morphling
Morphling
341 picks · 711 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
330 picks · 796 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
326 picks · 521 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% MoneyMakers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:31
UALEIKUMNIHAO 49%MoneyMakers 51%
The model gave 51% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 38:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterOtaker
50% · 34 games55% · 54 games
SvenLukas
Sven
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerShergarat
43% · 90 games49% · 228 games
Death ProphetEgor
Death Prophet
Primal Beast
Primal BeastChira JUNIOR
50% · 189 games53% · 240 games
DoomBb3px
Doom
Undying
UndyingMary_y
48% · 310 games49% · 50 games
Vengeful SpiritCeMaTheSlayeR
Vengeful Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark Willowb1kA
50% · 65 games53% · 116 games
Skywrath MageBignum
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction missed24:10
UALEIKUMNIHAO 50%MoneyMakers 50%
The model gave 50% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 26:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenOtaker
56% · 146 games46% · 134 games
LeshracEgor
Leshrac
Viper
ViperShergarat
53% · 56 games54% · 188 games
DoomBb3px
Doom
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritChira JUNIOR
40% · 56 games41% · 96 games
SlarkLukas
Slark
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterb1kA
56% · 58 games49% · 111 games
Treant ProtectorCeMaTheSlayeR
Treant Protector
Disruptor
DisruptorMary_y
56% · 284 games46% · 71 game
Skywrath MageBignum
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction correct10:24
UALEIKUMNIHAO 49%MoneyMakers 51%
The model gave 51% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 42:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingOtaker
52% · 300 games49% · 36 games
GyrocopterLukas
Gyrocopter
Invoker
InvokerChira JUNIOR
49% · 81 game45% · 288 games
Ember SpiritEgor
Ember Spirit
Lycan
LycanShergarat
53% · 149 games55% · 47 games
Night StalkerBb3px
Night Stalker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMary_y
55% · 327 games50% · 479 games
RubickCeMaTheSlayeR
Rubick
Dark Willow
Dark Willowb1kA
57% · 84 games38% · 91 game
Shadow DemonBignum
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteMoneyMakers · 53%
Series resultMoneyMakers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3