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Фиджитал Игры по Dota 2. Сезон 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
UALEIKUMNIHAOloss 1:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Neon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

UALEIKUMNIHAO

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Shergarat · 14 games
57%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 12 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Mary_y · 12 games
42%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
b1kA · 12 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mary_y · 10 games
60%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Shergarat · 10 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
b1kA · 9 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Palantimos · 9 games
56%

Neon Esports

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Ken · 12 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Hishge · 8 games
63%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ken · 8 games
63%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
FortuneSoul · 6 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
FortuneSoul · 6 games
83%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 5 games
40%
Silencer
Silencer
Hated · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
643 picks · 687 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
516 picks · 341 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
444 picks · 960 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
425 picks · 926 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 856 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
390 picks · 345 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
386 picks · 996 bans
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
386 picks · 858 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:40
UALEIKUMNIHAO 38%Neon Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 23:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfire
SnapfireChira JUNIOR
46% · 412 games48% · 405 games
Ember SpiritKen
Ember Spirit
Morphling
MorphlingWoE
49% · 283 games52% · 236 games
Monkey KingFortuneSoul
Monkey King
Broodmother
BroodmotherShergarat
54% · 186 games47% · 697 games
RubickHishge
Rubick
Mirana
Miranab1kA
53% · 388 games
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMary_y
55% · 69 games
Game 2prediction missed31:5
UALEIKUMNIHAO 40%Neon Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 21:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautWoE
47% · 50 games51% · 87 games
LifestealerFortuneSoul
Lifestealer
Enigma
EnigmaShergarat
64% · 79 games46% · 164 games
TimbersawKen
Timbersaw
Primal Beast
Primal BeastChira JUNIOR
46% · 154 games44% · 251 game
EnchantressHishge
Enchantress
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenMary_y
56% · 134 games
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorb1kA
55% · 85 games
Game 3prediction correct6:40
UALEIKUMNIHAO 40%Neon Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 22:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreWoE
59% · 39 games54% · 82 games
LifestealerFortuneSoul
Lifestealer
Beastmaster
BeastmasterShergarat
54% · 192 games49% · 207 games
PuckKen
Puck
Tiny
TinyChira JUNIOR
51% · 276 games47% · 404 games
SnapfireHishge
Snapfire
Phoenix
PhoenixMary_y
42% · 97 games
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageb1kA
47% · 89 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 72%
Series resultNeon Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3