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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
UALEIKUMNIHAOwin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
No Sorryloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

UALEIKUMNIHAO

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Shergarat · 9 games
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Palantimos · 7 games
71%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
b1kA · 7 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mary_y · 6 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 5 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
Mary_y · 5 games
80%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Palantimos · 5 games
80%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Mary_y · 5 games
60%

No Sorry

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
BLACKARXANGEL · 18 games
44%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Dinozavrik · 15 games
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
BLACKARXANGEL · 13 games
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Dodren · 13 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 11 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Dominic · 9 games
44%
Rubick
Rubick
ArrOw · 9 games
44%
Tusk
Tusk
Dodren · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1004 picks · 682 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
655 picks · 479 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
604 picks · 957 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
554 picks · 433 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
524 picks · 360 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
515 picks · 1176 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
514 picks · 370 bans
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
498 picks · 369 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:9
UALEIKUMNIHAO 61%No Sorry 39%
The model gave 61% on UALEIKUMNIHAO — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 39:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPalantimos
51% · 364 games46% · 164 games
UrsaDinozavrik
Ursa
Necrophos
NecrophoshAze
55% · 46 games43% · 155 games
TimbersawDominic
Timbersaw
Enigma
EnigmaShergarat
56% · 231 game49% · 182 games
Dragon KnightDodren
Dragon Knight
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorb1kA
59% · 320 games40% · 672 games
RubickFezor
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptorMary_y
54% · 327 games48% · 115 games
JakiroBLACKARXANGEL
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct34:23
UALEIKUMNIHAO 59%No Sorry 41%
The model gave 59% on UALEIKUMNIHAO — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 37:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladePalantimos
53% · 227 games47% · 267 games
DoomDominic
Doom
Lycan
LycanShergarat
58% · 161 game42% · 105 games
SniperDinozavrik
Sniper
Death Prophet
Death ProphethAze
48% · 508 games51% · 358 games
PangolierDodren
Pangolier
Disruptor
Disruptorb1kA
58% · 419 games46% · 673 games
RubickFezor
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMary_y
51% · 443 games45% · 355 games
UndyingBLACKARXANGEL
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteUALEIKUMNIHAO · 65%
Series resultUALEIKUMNIHAO 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2