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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
UALEIKUMNIHAOwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Sigma.YNTloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

UALEIKUMNIHAO

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
hAze · 11 games
64%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
b1kA · 9 games
78%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mary_y · 8 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Palantimos · 8 games
75%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Shergarat · 7 games
71%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
b1kA · 7 games
71%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Palantimos · 6 games
83%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Mary_y · 6 games
50%

Sigma.YNT

Tiny
Tiny
queezy · 27 games
52%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 19 games
32%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
VANSKOR · 17 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kur0patbI4 · 13 games
54%
Doom
Doomsignature
kur0patbI4 · 13 games
69%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
v1olent- · 13 games
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
VANSKOR · 12 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
998 picks · 693 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
642 picks · 476 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
591 picks · 936 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
546 picks · 406 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
539 picks · 418 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
531 picks · 371 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
517 picks · 1209 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
507 picks · 384 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 36%
Hero pool strength58% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:13
UALEIKUMNIHAO 65%Sigma.YNT 35%
The model gave 65% on UALEIKUMNIHAO — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 27:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPalantimos
42% · 37 games42% · 57 games
Alchemistnesfeer
Alchemist
Death Prophet
Death ProphetShergarat
53% · 131 game53% · 269 games
Puckforyou
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpirithAze
50% · 113 games51% · 51 game
Sand Kingkur0patbI4
Sand King
Doom
Doomb1kA
53% · 110 games58% · 43 games
VenomancerVANSKOR
Venomancer
Jakiro
JakiroMary_y
47% · 47 games42% · 18 games
Bounty Hunterqueezy
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction correct29:12
UALEIKUMNIHAO 67%Sigma.YNT 33%
The model gave 67% on UALEIKUMNIHAO — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 26:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistPalantimos
50% · 56 games36% · 13 games
Phantom Lancernesfeer
Phantom Lancer
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainhAze
40% · 67 games49% · 93 games
Primal Beastkur0patbI4
Primal Beast
Necrophos
NecrophosShergarat
57% · 21 game52% · 65 games
Storm Spiritforyou
Storm Spirit
Doom
Doomb1kA
54% · 158 games49% · 67 games
Skywrath Magequeezy
Skywrath Mage
Warlock
WarlockMary_y
64% · 18 games50% · 82 games
Crystal MaidenVANSKOR
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteUALEIKUMNIHAO · 76%
Series resultUALEIKUMNIHAO 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2