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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
UD Vessuwanwin 2:1
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Myth Avenue Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

UD Vessuwan

Rubick
Rubick
boombell · 12 games
42%
Snapfire
Snapfire
boombell · 10 games
20%
Tiny
Tiny
Beebie · 10 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
LionaX · 8 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
LionaX · 7 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Beebie · 7 games
29%
Tusk
Tusk
boombell · 7 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Beebie · 6 games
17%

Myth Avenue Gaming

Tusk
Tusksignature
Hishge · 20 games
80%
Mirana
Miranasignature
RR · 15 games
73%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
RR · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 9 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
xsilearn · 9 games
78%
Lina
Linasignature
xsilearn · 9 games
89%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Hishge · 8 games
75%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Meracle · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
928 picks · 635 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
652 picks · 454 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
555 picks · 884 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
543 picks · 440 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
536 picks · 543 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
498 picks · 337 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
479 picks · 1051 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
453 picks · 330 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 53%
Hero pool strength68% Myth Avenue Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total69% Myth Avenue Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:12
UD Vessuwan 37%Myth Avenue Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Myth Avenue Gaming — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 44:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingKNP
46% · 29 games49% · 151 game
Faceless VoidYoungGodLevi
Faceless Void
Pangolier
PangolierBeebie
52% · 298 games57% · 201 game
BroodmotherMeracle
Broodmother
Rubick
Rubickboombell
50% · 393 games54% · 448 games
Tuskxsilearn
Tusk
Snapfire
SnapfireLionaX
45% · 289 games46% · 209 games
Crystal MaidenPlayHard
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct30:37
UD Vessuwan 38%Myth Avenue Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on Myth Avenue Gaming — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 39:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenKNP
48% · 128 games49% · 322 games
Nature's ProphetYoungGodLevi
Nature's Prophet
Mirana
Miranaboombell
50% · 339 games56% · 88 games
Dark SeerMeracle
Dark Seer
Tiny
TinyBeebie
46% · 571 game45% · 628 games
Rubickxsilearn
Rubick
Undying
UndyingLionaX
48% · 286 games59% · 286 games
DisruptorPlayHard
Disruptor
Game 3prediction missed54:25
UD Vessuwan 41%Myth Avenue Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Myth Avenue Gaming — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 55:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc WardenKNP
58% · 8 games38% · 87 games
Drow RangerYoungGodLevi
Drow Ranger
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBeebie
53% · 275 games57% · 42 games
Dark SeerMeracle
Dark Seer
Earthshaker
Earthshakerboombell
52% · 100 games47% · 350 games
Rubickxsilearn
Rubick
Mirana
MiranaLionaX
54% · 283 games46% · 187 games
UndyingPlayHard
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteMyth Avenue Gaming · 69%
Series resultUD Vessuwan 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3