Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
UD Vessuwanloss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
XERXIAwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
UD Vessuwan
Snapfire
boombell · 10 games
Rubick
boombell · 9 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
LionaX · 8 games
Batrideroften banned
Beebie · 7 games
Mirana
boombell · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
Beebie · 6 games
Tiny
Beebie · 6 games
Tusk
boombell · 6 games
XERXIA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
669 picks · 430 bans
Tusk
577 picks · 542 bans
Tiny
557 picks · 442 bans
Treant Protector
480 picks · 538 bans
Mirana
390 picks · 383 bans
Snapfire
381 picks · 206 bans
Death Prophet
346 picks · 527 bans
Nature's Prophet
341 picks · 487 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 37%
Hero pool strength58% XERXIA
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total72% XERXIA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:26
UD Vessuwan 28%XERXIA 72%
The model gave 72% on XERXIA — the game was taken by XERXIA in 24:25.
Game 2prediction correct
UD Vessuwan 28%XERXIA 72%
The model gave 72% on XERXIA — the game was taken by XERXIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteXERXIA · 72%
Series resultXERXIA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2