IESF World Championship 2023 Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Украинаloss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Кыргызстанwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Украина
Batrideroften banned
Kidaro · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Infernal · 1 game
Кыргызстан
Pangolieroften banned
Askold · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Max · 1 game
Dark Willow
Zayac · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Zayac · 1 game
Phantom Assassin
Max · 1 game
Underlordoften banned
Blizzy · 1 game
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Blizzy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
463 picks · 493 bans
Rubick
455 picks · 218 bans
Batrider
393 picks · 656 bans
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 602 bans
Morphling
332 picks · 700 bans
Timbersaw
327 picks · 764 bans
Undying
310 picks · 521 bans
Storm Spirit
308 picks · 634 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% Украина
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Украина
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:37
Украина 54%Кыргызстан 46%
The model gave 54% on Украина — the game was taken by Кыргызстан in 38:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinStoneBank
GyrocopterKami
InvokerPanda
DawnbreakerBlizzy
Legion CommanderInfernal
Ember SpiritAskold
EnchantressKidaro
LionZayac
57% · 3 games
WarlockMax
Game 2prediction missed21:39
Украина 54%Кыргызстан 46%
The model gave 54% on Украина — the game was taken by Кыргызстан in 44:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerStoneBank
SvenKami
InvokerPanda
PangolierAskold
Night StalkerInfernal
TidehunterBlizzy
ClockwerkKidaro
Dark WillowZayac
29% · 3 games
WarlockMax
Model check result
Model favoriteУкраина · 59%
Series resultКыргызстан 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2