IESF World Championship 2021. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Украинаloss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Румынияwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Украина
No games played over 6 months.
Румыния
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
371 picks · 171 bans
Hoodwink
346 picks · 123 bans
Lina
266 picks · 462 bans
Nyx Assassin
259 picks · 521 bans
Luna
250 picks · 347 bans
Mars
244 picks · 413 bans
Winter Wyvern
236 picks · 244 bans
Dragon Knight
235 picks · 328 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Украина
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Украина
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:28
Украина 61%Румыния 39%
The model gave 61% on Украина — the game was taken by Румыния in 34:07.
Game 2prediction missed32:22
Украина 61%Румыния 39%
The model gave 61% on Украина — the game was taken by Румыния in 33:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteУкраина · 61%
Series resultРумыния 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2