European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs predictionUBUkrainian Boysloss 0:1
series probability
7%93%
probability at match start · final 0:1
TNL DOTAwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ukrainian Boys
No games played over 6 months.
TNL DOTA
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 24 games
Dark Willow
Fernans · 23 games
Tusk
Fernans · 23 games
Marcisignature
Fernans · 18 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 18 games
Batridersignature
Fernans · 14 games
Naga Sirensignature
flacko · 13 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
yowaai · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
307 picks · 193 bans
Puck
296 picks · 659 bans
Dark Willow
263 picks · 113 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 253 bans
Dawnbreaker
253 picks · 605 bans
Nature's Prophet
249 picks · 514 bans
Batrider
244 picks · 678 bans
Marci
242 picks · 516 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% TNL DOTA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Ukrainian Boys 7%TNL DOTA 93%
The model gave 93% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA.
Model check result
Model favoriteTNL DOTA · 93%
Series resultTNL DOTA 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1