European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs predictionUBUkrainian Boysloss 0:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:1
VP.Prodigywin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ukrainian Boys
No games played over 6 months.
VP.Prodigy
Batrideroften banned
armageddon · 1 game
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
takizawa · 1 game
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 1 game
Pugna
VaniLLl · 1 game
Snapfire
armageddon · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
egx · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
326 picks · 214 bans
Puck
303 picks · 674 bans
Dark Willow
269 picks · 131 bans
Tusk
265 picks · 258 bans
Batrider
259 picks · 699 bans
Dawnbreaker
255 picks · 600 bans
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 509 bans
Marci
241 picks · 505 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Ukrainian Boys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% VP.Prodigy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Ukrainian Boys 40%VP.Prodigy 60%
The model gave 60% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy.
Model check result
Model favoriteVP.Prodigy · 60%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1