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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Ukumariloss 0:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Mad Kingswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ukumari

Undying
Undyingsignature
Gardick · 20 games
65%
Puck
Puckoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Gardick · 18 games
61%
Marci
Marcisignature
Thiolicor · 18 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Vitaly · 17 games
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Lumière · 15 games
47%
Tiny
Tiny
Thiolicor · 15 games
53%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Thiolicor · 14 games
64%

Mad Kings

Mirana
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
62%
Rubick
Rubick
Thiolicor · 13 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tiny
Elmisho · 11 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Gardick · 10 games
70%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
sl4d1n- · 10 games
50%
Silencer
Silencer
Gardick · 10 games
40%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
ArzenT · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
614 picks · 395 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
541 picks · 526 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
529 picks · 430 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
423 picks · 504 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
376 picks · 372 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
353 picks · 193 bans
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
317 picks · 207 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 766 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Ukumari
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:47
Ukumari 36%Mad Kings 64%
The model gave 64% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 49:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeJP
50% · 98 games52% · 333 games
Death ProphetArzenT
Death Prophet
Batrider
BatriderAlone
56% · 59 games
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerH1j4ck
29% · 31 game
Tusk
TuskKiri
48% · 79 games
Undying
UndyingYor
59% · 66 games
Game 2prediction correct25:53
Ukumari 34%Mad Kings 66%
The model gave 66% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 46:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkAlone
52% · 19 games49% · 302 games
Death ProphetArzenT
Death Prophet
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightJP
52% · 63 games
Snapfire
SnapfireH1j4ck
50% · 84 games
Tusk
TuskKiri
48% · 79 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonYor
51% · 57 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 81%
Series resultMad Kings 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2