Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Unholy Amberwin 1:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Nordloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Unholy Amber
No games played over 6 months.
Team Nord
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
354 picks · 245 bans
Marci
323 picks · 560 bans
Undying
286 picks · 476 bans
Tusk
272 picks · 181 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 422 bans
Primal Beast
239 picks · 505 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 288 bans
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 102 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Unholy Amber
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team Nord
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:13
Unholy Amber 47%Team Nord 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Nord — the game was taken by Unholy Amber in 28:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nord · 53%
Series resultUnholy Amber 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1