Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Unity Esportsloss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Betrayedwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Unity Esports
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Panda · 1 game
Tiny
Panda · 1 game
Betrayed
Rubick
Flash · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 2 games
Broodmotheroften banned
symetricaL · 1 game
Clockwerk
OwnedMe · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
symetricaL · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
symetricaL · 1 game
Hoodwink
OwnedMe · 1 game
Iooften banned
Flash · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
790 picks · 545 bans
Tiny
569 picks · 398 bans
Treant Protector
527 picks · 569 bans
Tusk
523 picks · 439 bans
Nature's Prophet
443 picks · 724 bans
Death Prophet
412 picks · 800 bans
Snapfire
406 picks · 295 bans
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 853 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% Betrayed
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Unity Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:43
Unity Esports 50%Betrayed 50%
The model gave 50% on Unity Esports — the game was taken by Betrayed in 33:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracPanda
ViperShad
57% · 31 game
Storm SpiritMirage
47% · 87 games
Death ProphetsymetricaL
41% · 18 games
EarthshakerOwnedMe
56% · 39 games
DisruptorFlash
Game 2prediction missed22:48
Unity Esports 53%Betrayed 47%
The model gave 53% on Unity Esports — the game was taken by Betrayed in 48:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Outworld DestroyerPanda
Faceless VoidShad
54% · 9 games
Ember SpiritMirage
45% · 7 games
Primal BeastsymetricaL
43% · 3 games
RubickOwnedMe
little data
JakiroFlash
Model check result
Model favoriteUnity Esports · 51%
Series resultBetrayed 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2