Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Unity Esportsloss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Into The Breachwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Unity Esports
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Panda · 3 games
Leshracoften banned
Panda · 2 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Panda · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Panda · 1 game
Tiny
Panda · 1 game
Into The Breach
Rubick
Immersion · 14 games
Miranasignature
RESPECT · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 10 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 8 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 8 games
Phoenix
Kidaro · 8 games
Snapfire
Xibbe · 8 games
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
694 picks · 600 bans
Disruptor
557 picks · 490 bans
Beastmaster
452 picks · 1100 bans
Doom
447 picks · 795 bans
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 1036 bans
Pangolier
384 picks · 833 bans
Mirana
382 picks · 207 bans
Enchantress
379 picks · 545 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Unity Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:28
Unity Esports 38%Into The Breach 62%
The model gave 62% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 38:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritPanda
TerrorbladeNande
PhoenixDelight
AxeXibbe
50% · 4 games
HuskarSupream^
49% · 53 games
EnchantressRESPECT
Game 2prediction correct34:45
Unity Esports 40%Into The Breach 60%
The model gave 60% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 45:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritPanda
Monkey KingNande
PugnaDelight
Void SpiritSupream^
36% · 10 games
Dark SeerXibbe
44% · 107 games
RubickRESPECT
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 72%
Series resultInto The Breach 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2