Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Unity Esportsloss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
KZ TEAMwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Unity Esports
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Panda · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Panda · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Panda · 1 game
Tiny
Panda · 1 game
KZ TEAM
Earthshakersignature
dEsire · 27 games
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 23 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 19 games
Primal Beastoften banned
dEsire · 19 games
Rubick
dEsire · 18 games
Vipersignature
SkyLark · 17 games
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 16 games
Tinysignature
dEsire · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
797 picks · 552 bans
Tiny
568 picks · 400 bans
Treant Protector
525 picks · 568 bans
Tusk
519 picks · 433 bans
Nature's Prophet
452 picks · 728 bans
Death Prophet
417 picks · 816 bans
Snapfire
404 picks · 290 bans
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 852 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 46%
Hero pool strength55% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Unity Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:7
Unity Esports 52%KZ TEAM 48%
The model gave 52% on Unity Esports — the game was taken by Unity Esports in 22:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritPanda
HuskarG.T.I
38% · 101 game
SnapfireMr. Luck
Game 2prediction missed39:41
Unity Esports 52%KZ TEAM 48%
The model gave 52% on Unity Esports — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 50:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritPanda
SnapfireMr. Luck
53% · 142 games
PangolierG.T.I
Game 3prediction missed16:40
Unity Esports 57%KZ TEAM 43%
The model gave 57% on Unity Esports — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 37:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckPanda
Dragon KnightG.T.I
31% · 68 games
SnapfireMr. Luck
Model check result
Model favoriteUnity Esports · 54%
Series resultKZ TEAM 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3