Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Unity Esportsloss 1:2series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Monaspawin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Unity Esports
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 3 games
Leshracoften banned
Panda · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Panda · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Panda · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Panda · 1 game
Tiny
Panda · 1 game
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
840 picks · 587 bans
Tiny
603 picks · 419 bans
Treant Protector
522 picks · 540 bans
Tusk
515 picks · 423 bans
Nature's Prophet
499 picks · 804 bans
Death Prophet
446 picks · 926 bans
Snapfire
441 picks · 308 bans
Clockwerk
395 picks · 289 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Monaspa
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:47
Unity Esports 21%Monaspa 79%
The model gave 79% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 33:08.
Game 2prediction missed59:46
Unity Esports 21%Monaspa 79%
The model gave 79% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Unity Esports in 47:58.
Game 3prediction correct42:64
Unity Esports 21%Monaspa 79%
The model gave 79% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 38:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 79%
Series resultMonaspa 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3