Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Universitario Esportswin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
chandogsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Universitario Esports
No games played over 6 months.
chandogs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
695 picks · 591 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 487 bans
Beastmaster
438 picks · 1074 bans
Doom
428 picks · 763 bans
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 1007 bans
Mirana
376 picks · 201 bans
Enchantress
372 picks · 538 bans
Pangolier
368 picks · 814 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 69%
Hero pool strength50% Universitario Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% chandogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:34
Universitario Esports 45%chandogs 55%
The model gave 55% on chandogs — the game was taken by chandogs in 46:18.
Game 2prediction correct36:40
Universitario Esports 45%chandogs 55%
The model gave 55% on chandogs — the game was taken by chandogs in 58:24.
Model check result
Model favoritechandogs · 55%
Series resultUniversitario Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2