Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Universitario Esportswin 2:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
los moticucosloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Universitario Esports
No games played over 6 months.
los moticucos
Rubick
sl4d1n- · 6 games
Pugnaoften banned
Alone · 5 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
sl4d1n- · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
Accel · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Accel · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Oscar · 3 games
Void Spirit
Alone · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
756 picks · 625 bans
Disruptor
614 picks · 534 bans
Beastmaster
547 picks · 1336 bans
Doom
545 picks · 1074 bans
Techies
467 picks · 507 bans
Pangolier
466 picks · 967 bans
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1170 bans
Enchantress
448 picks · 641 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% los moticucos
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% Universitario Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:17
Universitario Esports 58%los moticucos 42%
The model gave 58% on Universitario Esports — the game was taken by los moticucos in 37:22.
Game 2prediction missed40:24
Universitario Esports 58%los moticucos 42%
The model gave 58% on Universitario Esports — the game was taken by los moticucos in 59:34.
Game 3prediction missed28:37
Universitario Esports 58%los moticucos 42%
The model gave 58% on Universitario Esports — the game was taken by los moticucos in 1:05:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteUniversitario Esports · 58%
Series resultUniversitario Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3