Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs predictionUuralanloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PSG Questwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
uralan
Dragon Knightoften banned
Rvze · 2 games
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
Rvze · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Rvze · 2 games
Underlordoften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Rvze · 1 game
Meepooften banned
Rvze · 1 game
Necrophosoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
PSG Quest
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 8 games
Earth Spiritsignature
OmaR · 7 games
Pucksignature
No!ob · 6 games
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 6 games
Snapfiresignature
OmaR · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 5 games
Hoodwink
OmaR · 5 games
Pugnaoften banned
Eixn · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
467 picks · 501 bans
Mars
465 picks · 643 bans
Bane
438 picks · 269 bans
Sand King
421 picks · 552 bans
Storm Spirit
356 picks · 603 bans
Dragon Knight
353 picks · 414 bans
Pangolier
351 picks · 532 bans
Death Prophet
349 picks · 815 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:31
uralan 48%PSG Quest 52%
The model gave 52% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 27:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawTheBloodySky
SnapfireNo!ob
Dragon KnightRvze
UndyingEixn
40% · 145 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Game 2prediction correct18:33
uralan 46%PSG Quest 54%
The model gave 54% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 27:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerRvze
Death ProphetNo!ob
Sand KingTheBloodySky
SnapfireOmaR
45% · 41 game
Shadow ShamanEixn
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 58%
Series resultPSG Quest 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2