Узбекистан vs Филиппины — prediction IWEC 2022 · Dota 2

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IESF World Esports Championship 2022 · BO3

result vs prediction

Узбекистанloss 1:2

series probability

47%53%

probability at match start · final 1:2

Филиппиныwin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Узбекистан

Tiny

jAMES · 1 game

Филиппины

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Marci

372 picks · 593 bans

55%

Tiny

328 picks · 217 bans

49%

Undying

304 picks · 542 bans

53%

Primal Beast

251 picks · 479 bans

54%

Pangolier

247 picks · 373 bans

55%

Tusk

237 picks · 144 bans

55%

Shadow Fiend

214 picks · 274 bans

51%

Enigma

210 picks · 715 bans

58%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)56% vs 67%

Hero pool strength56% Филиппины

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total53% Филиппины

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed19:48

Узбекистан 51%Филиппины 49%

The model gave 51% on Узбекистан — the game was taken by Филиппины in 33:56.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo