Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
V-Gamingloss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bramewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
V-Gaming
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 30 games
Linasignature
hAze · 28 games
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 24 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 24 games
Disruptorsignature
Malady · 19 games
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 16 games
Batridersignature
hAze · 16 games
Bloodseekersignature
laise · 15 games
Brame
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 15 games
Marssignature
SkyLark · 12 games
Axeoften banned
SkyLark · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 8 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
SsaSpartan · 7 games
Banesignature
SsaSpartan · 7 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Nefrit · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
259 picks · 319 bans
Tidehunter
257 picks · 379 bans
Monkey King
244 picks · 543 bans
Lion
228 picks · 113 bans
Void Spirit
225 picks · 246 bans
Lina
223 picks · 460 bans
Pangolier
218 picks · 286 bans
Tiny
210 picks · 278 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:22
V-Gaming 55%Brame 45%
The model gave 55% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Brame in 23:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunterlaise
LifestealerNefrit
MorphlingTA2000
PuckW1sh-
InvokerhAze
BloodseekerSkyLark
SnapfireArrOw
LinaCTOMAHEH1
Ogre Magiantoha
DisruptorSsaSpartan
Game 2prediction missed19:49
V-Gaming 56%Brame 44%
The model gave 56% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Brame in 42:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeTA2000
UrsaNefrit
KunkkahAze
InvokerW1sh-
Marslaise
BloodseekerSkyLark
LionArrOw
WeaverCTOMAHEH1
Baneantoha
EnchantressSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 60%
Series resultBrame 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2