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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
V-Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:1
IVYloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

V-Gaming

Lina
Linasignature
hAze · 36 games
61%
Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 31 game
61%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 26 games
65%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 25 games
76%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
hAze · 24 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Malady · 21 game
62%
Weaver
Weaversignature
ArrOw · 21 game
67%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 20 games
60%

IVY

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 7 games
29%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
jAMES · 5 games
60%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Copy · 4 games
25%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
25%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Copy · 4 games
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
75%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 545 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
337 picks · 260 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
336 picks · 206 bans
46%
Weaver
Weaver
318 picks · 713 bans
56%
Monkey King
Monkey King
254 picks · 751 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
244 picks · 384 bans
46%
Disruptor
Disruptor
236 picks · 153 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
236 picks · 331 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 41%
Hero pool strength60% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:8
V-Gaming 72%IVY 28%
The model gave 72% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 30:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaTA2000
53% · 113 games46% · 49 games
Shadow FiendLowskill
Shadow Fiend
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainhAze
51% · 127 games46% · 127 games
RazorMastermind
Razor
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerlaise
42% · 83 games46% · 303 games
MarsTheBloodySky
Mars
Mirana
MiranaArrOw
59% · 148 games46% · 118 games
RubickjAMES
Rubick
Bane
Baneantoha
63% · 126 games
Game 2prediction missed23:26
V-Gaming 72%IVY 28%
The model gave 72% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by IVY in 32:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTA2000
51% · 127 games39% · 21 game
Naga SirenLowskill
Naga Siren
Puck
PuckhAze
52% · 226 games52% · 157 games
Storm SpiritMastermind
Storm Spirit
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerlaise
55% · 64 games48% · 394 games
MarsTheBloodySky
Mars
Abaddon
Abaddonantoha
51% · 156 games44% · 108 games
Dark WillowjAMES
Dark Willow
Bane
BaneArrOw
57% · 107 games
Game 3prediction correct33:12
V-Gaming 69%IVY 31%
The model gave 69% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 27:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinTA2000
50% · 68 games50% · 140 games
UrsaLowskill
Ursa
Puck
PuckhAze
60% · 194 games57% · 168 games
InvokerMastermind
Invoker
Viper
Viperlaise
48% · 69 games41% · 92 games
Outworld DestroyerTheBloodySky
Outworld Destroyer
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerArrOw
48% · 49 games46% · 132 games
ClockwerkjAMES
Clockwerk
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeantoha
50% · 152 games
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 83%
Series resultV-Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3