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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
V-Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Khanloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 28 games
71%
Lina
Linasignature
hAze · 20 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 20 games
70%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 20 games
85%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 17 games
53%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 15 games
53%
Axe
Axeoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
46%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Malady · 13 games
77%

Khan

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
goddam · 3 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
antoha · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 2 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
antoha · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 2 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Dodren · 2 games
50%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
layme · 2 games
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
layme · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
358 picks · 176 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
331 picks · 121 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
271 picks · 494 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
256 picks · 428 bans
48%
Luna
Luna
254 picks · 338 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
248 picks · 335 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
243 picks · 514 bans
55%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
235 picks · 479 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% V-Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total86% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:27
V-Gaming 74%Khan 26%
The model gave 74% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Khan in 28:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautTA2000
44% · 152 games43% · 118 games
Morphlinglayme
Morphling
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerlaise
49% · 89 games51% · 119 games
TinyDodren
Tiny
Invoker
InvokerhAze
57% · 148 games51% · 287 games
MarspJonn
Mars
Lion
LionArrOw
52% · 300 games50% · 145 games
Dark Willowgoddam
Dark Willow
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMalady
51% · 87 games50% · 107 games
Elder Titanantoha
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct36:19
V-Gaming 72%Khan 28%
The model gave 72% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 33:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaTA2000
46% · 50 games47% · 48 games
Weaverlayme
Weaver
Batrider
BatriderhAze
46% · 88 games54% · 27 games
Queen of PainDodren
Queen of Pain
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerlaise
38% · 12 games55% · 38 games
Vengeful SpiritpJonn
Vengeful Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonArrOw
46% · 79 games50% · 114 games
Pangoliergoddam
Pangolier
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMalady
53% · 26 games70% · 28 games
Baneantoha
Bane
Game 3prediction correct34:37
V-Gaming 72%Khan 28%
The model gave 72% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 45:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaTA2000
53% · 111 games51% · 70 games
Svenlayme
Sven
Storm Spirit
Storm SpirithAze
46% · 115 games47% · 197 games
PangolierDodren
Pangolier
Mars
Marslaise
52% · 240 games55% · 132 games
BloodseekerpJonn
Bloodseeker
Rubick
RubickArrOw
46% · 145 games50% · 248 games
Liongoddam
Lion
Night Stalker
Night StalkerMalady
49% · 78 games50% · 42 games
Omniknightantoha
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 86%
Series resultV-Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3