Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
V-Gamingwin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Khanloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
V-Gaming
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 34 games
Linasignature
hAze · 31 game
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 24 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 24 games
Disruptorsignature
Malady · 20 games
Invokeroften banned
hAze · 18 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
laise · 17 games
Marssignature
laise · 17 games
Khan
Tidehunteroften banned
pJonn · 13 games
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 11 games
Marssignature
pJonn · 10 games
Tinysignature
Dodren · 9 games
Bane
antoha · 8 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Dodren · 8 games
Morphlingoften banned
layme · 8 games
Terrorbladesignature
layme · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tidehunter
261 picks · 373 bans
Mars
260 picks · 321 bans
Monkey King
248 picks · 562 bans
Void Spirit
230 picks · 246 bans
Lion
225 picks · 104 bans
Lina
220 picks · 454 bans
Pangolier
214 picks · 269 bans
Bane
209 picks · 129 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% V-Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total68% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:12
V-Gaming 64%Khan 36%
The model gave 64% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 34:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidTA2000
Morphlinglayme
RazorArrOw
LeshracMirage
Outworld Destroyerlaise
Marschshrct
Earth Spiritb1kA
Rubickgoddam
Baneantoha
EnchantressAoharide
Game 2prediction correct40:19
V-Gaming 60%Khan 40%
The model gave 60% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 39:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckhAze
Medusalayme
RikiTA2000
InvokerMirage
Outworld Destroyerlaise
Marschshrct
Spirit BreakerArrOw
Shadow Shamangoddam
Baneantoha
TuskAoharide
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 68%
Series resultV-Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2